MRC London 2026 Keynote: Adolfo Laurenti on the Economic Drivers of Business Risk
At MRC London 2026, keynote speaker Adolfo Laurenti, Principal Economist at Visa, takes the stage to unpack the economic drivers behind business risk. Drawing on global data and market trends, Laurenti will explore how the business cycle influences fraud patterns, where early warning signs may be hiding, and how organizations can better anticipate what’s coming next.
In the Q&A below, he shares what first sparked his interest in economics, the indicators payments and fraud prevention professionals should be watching closely, and how macroeconomic signals can translate into real-world risk decisions.
Before we dive into economic indicators and fraud trends, what first drew you to economics, and eventually into analyzing business risk within payments?
Believe it or not, it all started in high school. I loved philosophy, and I loved history. The two, taken together, pushed me towards an appreciation for systematic thinking about social events, past and present. Add to that extensive readings of the classical philosophers who first investigated the economic sphere, such as Adam Smith. The next step into economics was relatively straightforward.
Your keynote explores how the business cycle influences risk and fraud. What economic indicators should payments and fraud prevention professionals be watching most closely right now — and why?
At the core of payments, there is trust and technology. So, it is worth watching every data point that illustrates the consumers’ state of mind, the pace of technological change, and disruptions to the economic landscape that may open the door to bad actors. Think of consumer sentiment indicators, financial market volatility, trends in job creation (or destruction), as well as data on the speed of adoption of new technologies.
You’ve spoken about “early warning signs” of emerging risk. What’s an example of an economic shift that historically signaled fraud growth before most organizations recognized it?
Famed economist Herb Stein once quipped, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." It sounds like a joke or a truism, but there is an important truth in it. When prices keep moving up and up, beyond what can be justified by value-based models, and analysts get in the habit of shifting the rationale to justify ever-rising valuations, it’s time to pause. We saw it with dot-com stocks back in the 1990s. We saw it with home prices in the early 2000s. We saw it with mortgage-backed securities and financial derivatives in 2008-2009. We saw it with some government bonds in Europe in the early 2010s.
How can risk leaders translate macroeconomic signals into operational decisions, whether that’s adjusting controls, forecasting fraud loss, or reallocating resources?
Risk leaders have a natural inclination for economics, and this will help. The macro signal will be noisy, unclear, contradictory. But good risk practices have at their core the evaluation, and re-evaluation of all evidence, on an ongoing basis. Sudden stops are seldom healthy: eternal vigilance is the price to pay for risk control.
With inflation pressures, consumer debt, and geopolitical volatility shaping markets, where do you see the greatest business risk exposure emerging over the next 12–18 months?
Besides the usual suspects (inflation, credit quality, unemployment, private credit, etc.), I will watch closely the disruptions in technology. Especially in payments, there might be the temptation to lower the guards, and reduce risk controls, as we chase cost-cutting solutions and artificial intelligence. But it is at times of volatility, uncertainty, and stress that consumers are most vulnerable emotionally, as well as financially, and fraudsters will be most emboldened.
For the MRC London audience, particularly those operating across the UK and Europe, are there regional economic dynamics they should be especially mindful of right now?
The current conflict in the Middle East comes at a very unfortunate time. European consumers were just beginning to recover from the multiple shocks suffered over the last few years (the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the cost-of-living crisis). We were seeing encouraging signs of stabilisation, and during my MRC presentation I will show the evidence of it from our Visa data. Unfortunately, the disruptions stemming from the conflict and the setback in consumer sentiment are derailing what was shaping up as a year of recovery.
MRC London brings together a collaborative community of payments and fraud prevention leaders. During periods of economic uncertainty, how critical is cross-industry intelligence sharing, and what role should forums like MRC play?
A collaborative community is fundamental, because the protection of the ecosystem is a common goal towards which we all need to collaborate. The variety and magnitude of the challenges before us, that will be discussed in depth at MRC London, leave with no delusion that a DIY approach will work. We are all in this together, and sharing intelligence, understandings, and best practices is the best way to protect the ecosystem to the benefit of us all.
See Adolfo Laurenti Live at MRC London 2026
Adolfo Laurenti’s keynote, Economic Drivers of Business Risks, sponsored by Signifyd, offers a timely perspective on how economic forces are shaping fraud and risk across the payments ecosystem. As uncertainty, technological change, and shifting consumer behavior continue to redefine the landscape, his insights provide a practical framework for identifying early warning signals and staying ahead of emerging threats.
Join us on Tuesday, 14 April at 09:00 BST as Laurenti opens MRC London 2026 on the mainstage. There’s still time to register—MRC London takes place 13–15 April!
